The modest decline in mortgage rates is a welcome respite from the rapid increase in rates the last few weeks. While the housing market has clearly softened in reaction to the rise in mortgage rates, the economy and consumer sentiment remain very robust and that will sustain purchase demand, particularly in affordable markets and neighborhoods.
Information provided by Freddie Mac.
After years of strong buyer activity and weak seller activity, the market tides seem to finally be shifting back toward balance. Strong demand and weak supply have created an environment that favors sellers. But if anything can be called a constant in the market—it’s change. Four of the last five months showed increases in new listings; while four of the last five months also had decreases in pending sales.
While the market hasn’t quite transformed, the dynamics are shifting and the market is transitioning. September saw the smallest decline in active listings since May 2015, and those long-awaited inventory gains could still happen this year. Months supply was down just 3.8 percent to 2.5 months. Today’s buyers still face plenty of competition over limited supply. However, a recent uptick in rates could further impact some budget-conscious buyers. Locking in at current levels would be advantageous in a rising rate environment.Sellers yielded an average of 98.4 percent of their original list price and 99.7 percent of their current list price, partly illustrating that the shortage still looms. The lack of supply is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and—for the most part—much better supplied. It’s noteworthy that inventory levels could double while sales remain stable and we’d still have less than 5 months of supply.
September 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)• Sellers listed 6,857 properties on the market, a 5.9 percent increase
• Buyers closed on 5,087 homes, a 5.8 percent decrease from last September
• Inventory levels for September fell 4.4 percent compared to 2017 to 12,570 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 3.8 percent to 2.5 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 6.1 percent to $262,000, a record high for September
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 16.0 percent to 42 days, on average (median of 24)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
• Single family sales fell 6.3 percent; condo sales declined 1.1 percent; townhome sales rose 0.4 percent
• Traditional sales fell 4.0 percent; foreclosure sales sank 41.1 percent; short sales dropped 25.0 percent
• Previously-owned sales were down 5.9 percent; new construction sales increased 11.5 percent
For Week Ending October 6, 2018
Residential real estate continues to churn out impressive numbers as we reach deeper into autumn. In many markets, new listings and/or pending sales are still outperforming the results from this same time last year. When the economy is strong, buyers and sellers will remain active beyond the more traditional selling season. Predictions for a slowdown are rolling in, but we’re not there yet. Let’s take a look at what’s happening locally.
In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 6:
For the month of September:
All comparisons are to 2017
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.
October 11, 2018
In this week’s survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped 19 basis points to 4.90 percent. Rates are now at their highest level since the week of April 14, 2011.
Rising rates paired with high and escalating home prices is putting downward pressure on purchase demand. While the monthly payment remains affordable due to the still low mortgage rate environment, the primary hurdle for many borrowers today is the down payment and that is the reason home sales have decreased in many high-priced markets.
Information provided by Freddie Mac.
For Week Ending September 29, 2018
The U.S. unemployment rate recently dropped to 3.7 percent, which is its lowest mark since December 1969. The economy continues to bear impressive fruit within and outside of residential real estate, and the Federal Reserve has reacted by raising the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the third rate hike of 2018. While this may be undesirable news for those carrying high credit debt, it is also a reflection of a bright economic outlook.
In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending September 29:
For the month of August:
All comparisons are to 2017
Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.
October 4, 2018
Mortgage rates inched back a little in this week’s survey, easing 1 basis point to 4.71 percent after hitting a seven year high last week. There is upside risk to mortgage rates as the economy remains very robust and this is reflected in the very recent strength in the fixed income and equities markets.
However, the strength in the economy has failed to translate to gains in the housing market as higher mortgage rates have contributed to the decrease in home purchase applications, which are down from a year ago. With mortgage rates expected to track higher, it’s going to be a challenge for the housing market to regain momentum.
Information provided by Freddie Mac.